MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 282.
UFC 282 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2 and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-3
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2022: 117-72-1
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Ilia Topuria (-140) vs. Bryce Mitchell (+120)
Saturday’s main card opens up with a matchup that former UFC matchmaker Joe Silva would certainly approve of, as Ilia Topuria meets Bryce Mitchell at 145 pounds.
Despite officially picking Topuria to win, no one should be shocked if Mitchell is able to turn in another dominant performance. The Arkansas native is a suffocating grappler who is constantly improving and will likely have the cardio edge if this goes late.
That said, I’ve been impressed with Topuria’s pressure and bodywork since he stepped onto the scene, so I’ll side with him to shut down enough of Mitchell’s grappling in order to find a finish within the first seven minutes of the fight.
Darren Till (+150) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-175)
Filling out the main card is a middleweight matchup between Darren Till and Dricus Du Plessis.
Although Du Plessis’ janky and awkward blitzes are begging to be countered, I don’t know how dependable Till will be to answer the call given what we’ve seen from him lately. I also suspect that there will be a lot of crashes into clinch space, which will likely favor the stronger man in Du Plessis.
I hope I’m wrong, but the pick is Du Plessis by second-round submission.
Alex Morono (+145) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (-170)
Serving as a solid action fight at 170 pounds is an impromptu meeting between Alex Morono and Santiago Ponzinibbio.
It’s good to see Morono’s improvements earning him some respect as a live underdog. In fact, if Morono wasn’t taking this fight on such short notice, then I’d probably have taken a flier on the Texas native here.
However, unless Morono is able to catch Ponzinibbio with something like a spinning backfist or his left hook, then I suspect that the Argentinian fighter’s footwork and leg kicks will help him edge out a competitive decision win on the cards.
Jared Gordon (+210) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-250)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features a lightweight affair between Jared Gordon and Paddy Pimblett.
Despite Gordon’s propensity to turtle to his base being an everpresent invitation for a Pimblett back take, I believe that he’s a live dog in this spot. Pimblett is definitely the more dangerous finisher between the two of them, but Gordon looks to be the better wrestler and more technically-sound kickboxer.
He’ll have to survive his fair share of scares early, but I’ll take a flier on Gordon to break Pimblett down with superior bodywork and wrestling down the stretch for a narrow decision win.
Jan Blachowicz (+285) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-345)
The main event for UFC 282 features a vacant light heavyweight title fight between Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, the countering style of each fighter could make for large stretches of trepidation this Saturday.
Despite technically standing at 3-0 opposite UFC-level lefties, Blachowicz’s lone stoppage by strikes came by way of the same southpaw counters that Ankalaev never leaves home without.
#TheSouthpawReport for #UFC282…
• Jan Blachowicz is 3-0 against UFC-level southpaws (Dominick Reyes, Luke Rockhold and Goran Reljic). That said, his lone-career stoppage by strikes came from a stance-switching Thiago Santos who hit him with a check right hook and counter left. pic.twitter.com/CmZ9ODzjBV
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) December 8, 2022
Although I’d prefer an action-filled ending early, I have a sneaky suspicion that this fight finds its way to the scorecards for a sweaty decision that falls in favor of Ankalaev.
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