UFC Fight Night 240 breakdown: Can Chris Curtis upset Brendan Allen on short notice?

Brendan Allen

Staple info:

• Height: 6’2″ Age: 28 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75.5″
• Last fight: Submission win over Paul Craig (Nov. 18, 2023)
• Camp: Kill Cliff FC (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 14 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Steadily improved striking
^ Sharper techniques and combinations
+ Hard kicks and knees
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Serviceable takedown ability
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Dangerous chokes in transition
+/- 7-2 against UFC-level southpaws
+/- 6-2 inside the UFC Apex

Chris Curtis

Staple info:

• Height: 5’10” Age: 36 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75.5″
• Last fight: Decision win over Marc-Andre Barriault (Jan. 20, 2024)
• Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 17 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent boxing ability
^ Slick counters and bodywork
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ 92 percent takedown defense rating
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Good positional awareness
+/- 2-0 inside of the UFC Apex

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 04: (R-L) Chris Curtis punches Brendan Allen in their middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on December 04, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

The main event in Las Vegas features another impromptu meeting between middleweights, Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis.

In their first meeting back in late 2021, Curtis was able to steadily close the distance gap between him and Allen, allowing “The Action Man” to punctuate his presence inside of the pocket with his patent hooks.

Although Allen was initially training for Roman Dolidze before his first encounter with Curtis, the Lousiana native has traditionally done well when it comes to striking with southpaws, officially standing at 7-2 opposite UFC-level lefties.

Unlike a lot of fighters in MMA, Allen will actually use his lead hand to jab in the open stance. Not only does this help even the playing field when it comes to southpaw advantages, but it also assists Allen’s ability to launch power kicks from the rear side.

Working for a few years with noted striking coach, Henri Hooft, Allen has noticeably sharpened his offensive striking flow and technique. That said, Allen is still not beyond being countered due to his aggressive nature, so I’ll be curious how he conducts himself this time around against Curtis.

A savvy southpaw striker who has seen a lot in this game, Curtis has been slick enough to compete with the best in this weight class despite being undersized as a former welterweight.

Working behind solid feints and a deceptively long lead, Curtis will typically look to pressure opponents into exchanges that benefit the 36-year-old veteran. And once Curtis can draw out offense from his opposition, the Xtreme Couture fighter does a good job of taking an angle and countering with punches.

Whether Curtis is landing his patent body shots or utilizing his underrated elbows and knees in close, he has proven to be dangerous with multiple tools. Curtis is also good about rolling with the punches that come his way, but he’ll need to be extra careful about doing that with a long and strong kicker like Allen.

Oct 18, 2019; Boston, MA, USA; Brendan Allen (red) fights Kevin Holland (blue) in a heavyweight bout during UFC Fight Night at the TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Considering Allen’s on-paper advantages, no one should be shocked if he tries to grapple with Curtis early and often.

A dogged grappler since Day 1, Allen is a skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who operates with the aggression of a blue belt at their first tournament.

Whether Allen is abandoning positions for risky submissions or opting for rear-naked choke attempts without any hooks in, “All-in” has proven that he can live up to his nickname and still find success at this level. Since working with the large stable at Kill Cliff FC, Allen has gotten better at both maintaining positions, as well as doing more damage with strikes from topside.

However, as we witnessed in their first fight, maintaining a position on Curtis is easier said than done.

Aside from sporting an impressive 92 percent takedown defense rating, Curtis demonstrates solid positional awareness in closed quarters. From heavy hips that can sprawl at a moment’s notice to superb underhook play, Curtis makes for a stout and strong defender in this division.

That said, Allen was still able to briefly get to Curtis’ back without having to technically score a takedown, which means that the Las Vegas local will need to be on his best behavior this Saturday.

Jan 20, 2024; Toronto, Canada, USA; Chris Curtis (red glove) celebrates defeating Marc-Andre Barriault (blue gloves) during UFC 297 at ScotiaBank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Allen -216 and Curtis +164 via FanDuel.

Despite this being yet another rematch where the losing fighter is now favored, I can’t say that I’m surprised by the betting spread above.

Aside from the short-notice intangibles (which also existed the first time around), Allen is the more diverse fighter on paper who carries some solid trends for improvement. Add in the fact that he’s also the younger party, and no one should be surprised that the betting public is, once again, ignoring stylistic pairing in favor of basic statistics like age and reach.

As for me, I can’t help but break down fights from style perspectives – which is why I’m going the other way.

Stated Xtreme Couture bias aside, Allen – for all his improvements – still appears to struggle when facing serviceable wrestlers who can counter. In fact, since his last loss to Curtis, Allen has still shown a propensity to eat checking hooks from both stances when entering space.

For that reason, I’ll take a flier on the underdog Curtis in this spot. Not only do I suspect that Curtis is an unheralded five-round fighter, but I also believe that the shortened camp won’t adversely affect a veteran of his stature.

I’ll pick Curtis to win by knockout in the middle rounds.

Prediction: Curtis inside the distance