Predictions! UFC Vegas 90 Main, Co-Main Event Breakdown

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 90 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., April 6, 2024) on ESPN+ from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a middleweight main event — and UFC Vegas 44 rematch — between Top 15 contenders Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis, a five-round headliner with major title implications for early 2024 and beyond.

UFC Vegas 90 is flying under the radar, so to speak, though I’m not suggesting most APEX cards gets a tremendous amount of buildup. But the cast and crew of this weekend’s “Sin City” fight card are operating in the long shadow of next week’s UFC 300 pay-per-view (PPV) bonanza, which is expected to be the biggest event of the year. Simply put, anything great to come out of UFC Vegas 90 is likely to be forgotten by Monday morning, when the “Pereira vs. Hill” hype takes over.

That’s the nature of the beast, I suppose.

Brendan Allen (23-5) receives top billing for UFC Vegas 90, despite losing to Chris Curtis at UFC Vegas 44, because “All In” has been perfect in the six fights that followed his 2021 misstep against “Action Man.” In addition, five of those six victories have ended by way of submission, which includes his rear-naked choke finish over Paul Craig at UFC Vegas 82. His current streak was good enough to land Allen at No. 7 in the 185-pound rankings, seven spots in front of the No. 14-ranked Curtis. The only knock on Allen during that torrid run is that his competition has been average, at best, and “All In” has yet to prove himself against a Top 10 opponent.

That was supposed to change with the booking of the No. 5-ranked Marvin Vettori, but the “Italian Dream” suffered an injury and was forced to withdraw from UFC Vegas 90, paving the way for Curtis to step in and run it back.

“He’s got better technical abilities, in my opinion — I would say Chris is a lot tougher test than Marvin is,” Allen told reporters at the UFC Vegas 90 media day (watch it here). “It is what it is. We’ve faced each other before, obviously. We only had a couple days or whatever to prepare, if anything. Now, we have a little bit more time to prepare for each other. We’ll see who can make those adjustments and we’ll see what happens.”

Chris Curtis (31-10, 1 NC) is eight years older than Allen at 36 and seemed destined for greatness after jumping out to three straight wins to kick off his UFC career. His Allen upset was followed by a decision victory over Rodolfo Vieira, but then it all fell apart when “Action Man” was upended by perennial contender Jack Hermansson. The decision loss to “The Joker” was part of a 2-2 run with one “No Contest,” ending with a split decision win over Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 297 earlier this year in Toronto. Curtis has zero takedowns in eight fights for UFC and hasn’t even attempted one, so don’t expect that to change this weekend at APEX.

“Brendan’s a dog,” Curtis said at the UFC Vegas 90 media day (watch it here). “He’s done really well since we fought last time. Brendan’s 27. My god, I wish I was 27. At 27 years old, I can’t imagine the things he’s going to accomplish in this sport. He’s got 10 more years left in him at the earliest, so he’s going to accomplish big things, man. It’s going to be crazy. But this is a chance for me. I’ll be 37 this year. I don’t have time to do it the slow way. I’m not going to have a 10-year career in the UFC. So, anytime I get those opportunities to see a number above mine and take it, I’ve got to take it. This is one of those times.”

Allen is primarily a submission fighter and will likely need to get Curtis to the ground if he plans to manipulate the joints, something he failed to do in their first encounter. “All In” was 0-3 in takedown attempts, which is not surprising when you learn that opponents are 3-36 in takedown attempts against Curtis (92 percent). I’m not sure what Allen has planned to overcome the “Action Man’s” stifling defense, and while you don’t need a takedown to secure a submission (just ask Bruno Silva), it certainly makes things a helluva lot easier. I think Curtis keep himself upright, frustrates his foe on the feet, and sends Allen to an upset loss on all three scorecards.

The stakes are not as high for Alexander Hernandez (14-7) in the UFC Vegas 90 featherweight co-main event. You may remember Hernandez as the loudmouth who tried to shit all over Donald Cerrone — only to get crushed by “Cowboy” when they finally went to war at the promotion’s inaugural ESPN event. No doubt Hernandez, now 31, has matured in the years that followed. Unfortunately “The Great Ape” was unable to find his footing under the UFC banner and is just 4-5 since the Cerrone drubbing back in early 2019. That includes his unanimous decision loss to Bill Algeo on the UFC Vegas 80 card last fall, which I think — and I say this with all due respect — demonstrated that Hernandez is probably not going to be making a run at the division title in the immediate future, because he hasn’t been able to win consecutive fights in over six years and can’t beat unranked fighters like Algeo. Hernandez does everything good but nothing great, and if you’re wondering why “The Great Ape” has captured the co-main event slot, it’s likely because of his longevity, along with his three post-fight performance bonuses. Win or lose, Hernandez usually delivers in terms of action.

If Damon Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC) had a career that was as successful as his recent hair transplant, he would probably be world champion by now. Seriously, go look at his before-and-after pic, they did a phenomenal job! What hasn’t been phenomenal is Jackson’s last couple of performances, starting with his knockout loss to Dan Ige and ending with his unanimous decision defeat to Billy Quarantillo. That snapped a four-fight win streak for “The Leech” and kept him from landing a spot in the Top 15 of the division. The Texan is quickly approaching his 36th birthday so it may be now or never, at least in terms of making a run at the featherweight rankings. Jackson has knockout power but is known primarily for his dangerous submission game, securing 15 taps in his MMA career. In fact, his old nickname “Action” was just as fitting, because Jackson has only been to the scorecards in three of his 22 wins (and just once in six defeats). The stakes may not be high in terms of how this fight impacts the rest of the weight class, but the Hernandez fight sounds personal for “The Leech” — even if he denies it.

“I’m actually really tight with ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone,” Jackson told reporters at the UFC Vegas 90 media day (watch it here). “Him and my coach, they used to be teammates, and so when he talked a lot of smack with ‘Cowboy,’ it kind of lit some fire underneath me. I was like, ‘Dude this guy’s so arrogant. He talks so much smack.’ So, ever since then I just haven’t liked him. So definitely when I got the matchup I was excited, for sure. He talked a lot of smack, man. It is what it is. It wasn’t about me. I don’t take anything personally, really. I don’t really not like a whole lot of people, but I just don’t like him. I don’t know what it is, but it’s something about his face. I don’t know.”

“Oh, that’s pretty homosexual,” Hernandez said in a subsequent interview. “That was a long time ago. That’s like the softest sh*t of all time, dude. I promise ‘Cowboy’ doesn’t care about you. I was just drinking beers and eating hot dogs in San Antonio with ‘Cowboy’ when he made it to the Hall of Fame. So, yeah, that’s kind of silly to cry over another man’s woes. That was, I don’t know, the first year I was here, maybe? Five, six years ago? That’s a wild thing to be holding on to. It seems a little bit like straw grasping. I don’t know. I’m stoked to do him in, though. I’m really excited to hurt Damon. So, he can be mad or be however he wants to be, but I’m going to be calculated.”

This is a hard fight to predict because both fighters present unique challenges. Hernandez seems more at odds with his ability to stay consistent whereas Jackson appears to be declining, which is not uncommon at his age — or a fighter with his mileage. Don’t be surprised to see another post-fight performance bonus awarded in this high-octane affair, but when all is said and done, I think Hernandez catches an overzealous Jackson mid-firefight.

For more UFC Vegas 90 previews and predictions including the ESPN+ preliminary cards click here and here.

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To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 90 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized “Allen vs. Curtis 2” fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.