Madden: That’s exactly it, and that time is different for everyone, but that’s where the Over 35 conversation comes into play.
Father Time is undefeated in this game, so we’ll see. Both outcomes are very real possibilities on Saturday night.
Kyte: That’s what we love it! What about Topuria — what’s his X factor?
Madden: It’s the experience.
We did talk about his time in the UFC so far — six fights, six very diverse opponents, so he’s seen different skill sets, different problems, but six fights is still six fights, and Volk has 16 fights in the UFC. Now let’s talk about how many of those fights are title fights, five-round fights under the championship lights?
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Kyte: Josh Emmett.
Madden: Yep, exactly.
There will always be times where we talk about experience and the less experienced person wins, but, in general, experience is there for a reason. You want to be able to have those benchmarks, those reference points — fighting 25 minutes multiple times, understanding the pacing of those fights, winning close rounds, losing close rounds; all that stuff.
Not only that, but let’s just look at strength of schedule. We talked about Ilia’s and it’s certainly not weak, but I would say it’s weak compared to Volk’s.
Kyte: It’s a good strength of schedule. The last three guys he’s beaten are Josh Emmett, Bryce Mitchell, and Jai Herbert on short notice, up a division; good wins. Volk’s last three wins are Yair Rodriguez, Max Holloway, and Chan Sung Jung in championship fights where all three of those dudes got it.
Topuria is 14-0 overall; Volk is 12-0 in the UFC featherweight division, and even if you go back to the first couple of those, it’s Mizuto Hirota, a good veteran; Shane Young, a tough out from CKB (at a 150-pound catchweight); and Jeremy Kennedy, who was undefeated at the time and is still very, very good.
Madden: That’s exactly it. Strength of schedule matters. Experience matters. When you’re fighting at this level of the sport, for that long, it matters.
Kyte: This could be the confluence point. This could be the moment where there is a little dip for Volk and Topuria has a little rise and we have a new champion. It can happen and this is why we watch.
Madden: It can happen, but I’m definitely a coach likes to deal in probabilities and higher percentage things, and with the experience difference here, that definitely leans heavily in Volk’s favor, in my opinion.