Dangerous women’s Strawweights attempt to rebuild this Saturday (Oct. 1, 2022) when submission ace, Mackenzie Dern, and all-action slugger, Yan Xiaonan, battle it inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Also on tap for UFC Vegas 61 are a Welterweight slugfest between Randy Brown and Francisco Trinaldo, Featherweight fireworks pitting Sodiq Yusuff against Octagon newcomer Don Shainis, and the return of Raoni Barcelos opposite Trevin Jones.
With Halloween creeping up, now’s the time to budget for decorations. Let’s help with that …
What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 60?
Gregory Rodriguez, Joseph Pyfer, Nikolas Motta, Loma Lookboonmee, Anthony Hernandez, Cory Sandhagen and Gillian Robertson
Excellent work, all, though Robertson could stand to be more proactive about not getting elbowed in the head 800 times before securing takedowns.
Tony Gravely
Well, that whole, “great wrestling and strong stand up” argument I made held up for five minutes, at least. I really thought he could keep it up before his cardio gave out, but it tanked so quickly that he had to stop everything that worked, including his leg kicks.
Daniel Zellhuber
Honestly, I’m glad that Gravely lost and sank the parlay beforehand because I would have been losing my mind. Though Trey Ogden deserves a ton of credit for polishing his stand up, I can’t wrap my head around Zellhuber buckling him with low kicks and then completely abandoning them halfway through the fight, especially since it was Ogden’s lateral movement that was giving him so much trouble. It was just an all-time bad gameplan from Zellhuber.
Tanner Boser
The guy just couldn’t stay off the fence. He did a lot right, especially in the second round, but his inability to stay in center cage allowed Rodrigo Nascimento to consistently shoot under his power punches and take him down. I still think he had an argument for the third round off of his back, since Nascimento didn’t do squat from the top, but can’t be too mad about the result.
Pat Sabatini
There’s not a whole lot that can be said about it. He ducked down, Damon Jackson booted him in the face, and that was that. All my speculation about how their wrestling games matched up wound up being moot. Sometimes it be like that.
UFC Vegas 61 Odds For The Under Card:
Ilir Latifi (-175) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (+150)
It’s so blatantly obvious that Latifi’s going to take down Oleinik and smother him from guard that it would almost be surprising if that’s what happened. Oleinik relies on out-muscling his foes to secure takedowns and catching opponents off of his back as they overextend. Latifi is a refrigerator that walks like a man, so option one is off the table, and the man doesn’t even extend from the top, much less overextend.
Tabatha Ricci (-210) vs. Jessica Penne (+180)
I’m honestly feeling the upset here. While Ricci is a lot younger than Penne, the latter thrives in the sort of close-quarters grappling exchanges that are Ricci’s bread and butter. Penne also has significant height and reach advantages, which should help out her clinch striking, and showed against Lupita Godinez that she can take dominant positions against superior takedown artists. In short, a bit on the wily veteran makes sense.
Joaquim Silva (-145) vs. Jesse Ronson (+125)
Here’s another potential upset. Ronson’s weakness is, has been, and always will be his takedown defense, which “Netto BJJ” isn’t inclined to test (the Brazilian has attempted just two takedowns in six years as a UFC fighter). Silva’s a brawler coming off of two brutal knockout knockout losses, which plays right into “The Body Snatcher’s” hands. Keep it small, as Ronson may actually be cursed to never get an official Octagon win, but do have a look.
Krzysztof Jotko (-115) vs. Brendan Allen (-105)
I was genuinely surprised to see Jotko here. His whole thing is being a consistent all-arounder, a good-enough grappler to beat one-dimensional strikers and a good-enough striker to beat one-dimensional grapplers. When he runs into similar fighters with more horsepower, like Brad Tavares and Sean Strickland, things end badly. Allen has beaten better wrestlers in Puna Soriano and Jacob Malkoun, and though durability is a concern for him, Jotko’s one finish in the last eight years suggests that it won’t crop up.
Maxim Grishin (-175) vs. Philipe Lins (+150)
It’s probably best to stay away from this one because it’s a really close match up that could wind up being controversial. Grishin has the durability advantage, Lins the speed, and it’s easy to see either man emerging victorious.
Julija Stoliarenko (-115) vs. Chelsea Chandler (-105)
I like what I’ve seen of Chandler on the regional scene; she hits a hell of a lot harder than Stoliarenko on the feet and looks like a sufficiently adept wrestler to keep the fight where she wants it. Seems like a good investment from where I’m sitting.
Randy Costa (-280) vs. Guido Cannetti (+235)
After that absolutely flaccid performance against Tony Kelley, I can’t justify betting on Costa at almost -300 odds, and Cannetti’s too mediocre to warrant betting on the underdog. In other words, steer clear.
UFC Vegas 61 Odds For The Main Card:
Mackenzie Dern (-225) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+190)
A dollop on Yan looks like the ticket. She outright laps Dern on the feet, and it’s historically taken very, very good wrestlers to get her to the mat. Though Dern has proven that she doesn’t always need takedowns to find a dominant position and score the submission, her loss to Marina Rodriguez suggests that five rounds with a powerful, hard-to-submit striker may be beyond her.
Randy Brown (-315) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (+260)
Brown definitely wins this more often than not, but Trinaldo’s dangerous enough to make the lopsided odds worth a skip.
Sodiq Yusuff (-900) vs. Don Shainis (+625)
I mean, yeah, Yusuff’s going to knock this guy’s head off because Shainis is too easy to hit and is on the wrong end of huge height and reach discrepancies. If you really, really need that last bit of juice in your parlay, a bet on Yusuff isn’t going to bite you in the bum.
Raoni Barcelos (-215) vs. Trevin Jones (+185)
I’m really liking the line on Barcelos. He’s exponentially busier and more technically adept than Jones on the feet, and his wrestling also puts “5 Star’s” to shame. Jones doesn’t have the speed and craft to out-slick Barcelos the way Timur Valiev did or the raw aggression to overwhelm him like Victor Henry; outside of a one-punch knockout of the incredibly durable Barcelos, he’s desperately short on options.
Mike Davis (-175) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+150)
As a Borshchev stan, this might be a bit much. Davis is similarly adept with his boxing, has an extremely tough chin, and has shown the sort of wrestling attack that bedeviled “Slava Claus” against Marc Diakiese. Though there’s legitimate concern about Davis’ inactivity, I think a moderate bet still makes sense.
John Castaneda (-190) vs. Daniel Santos (+160)
Likely a win for Castaneda, but the pure violence Santos brings to the table makes the match up too volatile for my tastes.
UFC Vegas 61 Best Bets:
- Single bet — Jessica Penne: Bet $40 to make $72
- Single bet — Yan Xiaonan: Bet $40 to make $76
- Single bet — Jesse Ronson: Bet $40 to make $50
- Parlay — Brendan Allen and Sodiq Yusuff: Bet $60 to make $70.20
- Parlay — Chelsea Chandler and Mike Davis: Bet $40 to make $82.80
- Parlay — Ilir Latifi and Raoni Barcelos: Bet $60 to make $78
UFC Vegas 61 should be some quality action, at the very least. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2022: $600
Additional Investment (Aug. 2022): $400
Current Total: $591.93
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 61 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.
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