By Dan Tom |

February 10, 2022 3:30 pm ET

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 271.

UFC 271 takes place Saturday at Toyota Center in Houston. The main card streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

Israel Adesanya (21-1 MMA, 10-1 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 6’4″ Age: 32 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 80″
Last fight: Decision win over Marvin Vettori (June 12, 2021)
Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ UFC middleweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Professional kickboxing experience (76-5-2)
+ Professional boxing experience (5-1)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 15 knockout victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
+ Creative striking flow
^ Variates well to the body
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Improved counter wrestling
^ Underhooks, getups, separations
+ Active and attacking guard game
+/- 1-0 in MMA rematches, 3-1 in kickboxing rematches

Robert Whittaker (23-5 MMA, 14-3 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 6’0″ Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 73.5″
Last fight: Decision win over Kelvin Gastelum (April 17, 2021)
Camp: Gracie Jiu-jitsu Smeaton Grange (Australia)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ Hapkido and karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Australian National Wrestling Championships gold medal
+ 10 knockout victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good footwork and distance management
^ Quick blitzes and deceptive tempo changes
+ Accurate jabs and hooks
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Improved overall grappling
+/- 1-0 in MMA rematches

Point of interest: Striking the second time around

Robert Whittaker (left) and Israel Adesanya (right) at UFC 243. (USA TODAY Sports)

The main event for UFC 271 features a rematch for the middleweight title between two top-tier talents in Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker.

In their first fight, we were privy to an intense gun-slinging affair that only lasted a little more than a round. Despite Whittaker finding some success on Adesanya early with jabs and low kicks, the then-champion’s aggression kept increasing with every blitz, which eventually cost him in the form of vicious checking hooks.

Since then, we have seen Adesanya keep his counter hooks on more of a hair-trigger, but he still possesses slick cross-counters while shifting away on the retreat. Although I believe that hooking counters will still be key against the former champion, I’ll be curious to see what Adesanya has in store for the kicking department.

Enlisting the help of other striking influences like Carl Van Roon (taekwondo, karate, etc.), Adesanya appears to be preparing himself for Whittaker’s karate-centric kickboxing movements, as well as sharpening other tools.

Adesanya already delivers powerful kicks from the rear and sneaky offerings from his lead, but adding more kicking tools wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for a fight that I suspect will be contested at a more conservative range. The current champ has also alluded to more kick counters via his Instagram, reminding us of one of my favorite gems from their first fight.

Nevertheless, I still suspect that the main thing that Adesanya will need answers for is the jab of Whittaker. The reigning champion obviously has plenty of answers that can be encouraged by his feints, but Adesanya hasn’t been beyond being jabbed by shorter fighters in the past.

Quietly getting work done with it in their first meeting (in spite of a large reach disadvantage on paper), Whittaker has shown little issue when choosing to stick to his fundamentals and build off of deceptive jabs and feints in prior contests.

Whittaker may be hallmarked by his tempo-disrupting blitzes and hard shifting shots, but we’ve seen long fighters who can competently counter tax him time and time again with that approach. For that reason, I suspect that the jab will need to be his best friend this time around.

As we’ve seen in subsequent fights since losing his title, Whittaker has been more content with sitting back on his jab when he needs to – all while still keeping his building combos and blitzes in his back pocket for when he’s feeling in stride.

Aside from being a tool to help keep Whittaker on course, I also believe that the jab will help set up everything from leg kicks to potential takedowns as the fight wears on.

Point of interest: Return of the mat?

For the most part, it would appear that the majority of Adesanya’s opposition in MMA has either prioritized takedowns or getting on the inside.

The problem with the latter, is that Adesanya has more layers than just dangerous counters at kicking and boxing ranges.

From hand traps that parlay into elbows to clinches that lead to knees, Adesanya shows solid answers at multiple ranges that will come in handy for this contest. But for as talented as Adesanya is, he, too, is not beyond bested by a fighter with a better game plan and tactics.

Because of that, there has been a lot of talk about Whittaker recreating the late success that Jan Blachowicz had at UFC 259. And though I feel that this particular narrative is being a bit overblown, I still suspect that wrestling will be an important part of a successful Whittaker game plan.

Whittaker may not have the size of Blachowicz or the typical American accolades that are held in high regard, but wrestling is something that the former champion has long been dedicated to behind the scenes.

Whittaker’s coach has been comparing his fighter to the great Georges St-Pierre for some time, citing the quiet progression of his overall skills – specifically his wrestling. The 31-year-old quietly won a gold medal at the Australian National Wrestling Championships back in 2017, and took first at a Commonwealth Games qualifier later that year (though he was unable to follow through and represent Australia due to UFC contract obligations).

Said wrestling work, however, has shown up more and more in Whittaker’s career as an offensive weapon since his loss to Adesanya (as previously it was primarily used defensively given the stylistic run of opponents).

Whittaker still seems to mainly use single-leg snatches to either reset or re-steer exchanges, but has shown an ability to finish takedowns when he wants to. Whittaker also hit some nice outside trips off of double-under collisions with Kelvin Gastelum in his last outing, but I’m not sure how often those opportunities will appear with someone like Adesanya.

That said, I still believe Whittaker will need to do his best to get Adesanya out of position, as level-changing shots in the open will likely be his best bet against a fighter who has steadily figured out his frame.

Parlaying his kickboxing experience into mixed martial arts, Adesanya has shown a surprising amount of clinch savvy in regards to his counter grappling, all while maintaining the proper headspace to help keep strikes chambered off the breaks. From slick elbows to intercepting knees, Adesanya will possess plenty of threats that could stifle the approaches of Whittaker.

Even when revisiting his first professional MMA bout back in 2012, Adesanya was already demonstrating a surprising amount of clinch awareness, hitting hip tosses and displaying a basic understanding of whizzers and underhook leverage.

Since that time, Adesanya has made steady improvements to his defensive grappling, smartly fighting grips and protecting his hips while seeking separations, typically while using the cage for assistance. That said, when Adesanya is grounded, there hasn’t been much progress to speak of outside the same half-guard retentions and options he’s been relying on.

Whittaker may not have a “game over” level of ground attack, but he is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who can competently take backs or do damage via ground strikes. But between Adesanya’s improvements and Whittaker’s reluctance to force ground fights in the past, I have a hard time banking that this bout will be decided on the floor.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

The oddsmakers and public are currently favoring the sitting champ, listing Adesanya -290 and Whittaker +220 via Tipico Sportsbook.

Although the line is a bit wide for my liking, I completely agree with Adesanya being favored in this spot. Not only does Adesanya hold the scoreboard over the former champ, but long fighters who can effectively counter with hooks may, in fact, be Whittaker’s stylistic kryptonite.

That said, regardless of the betting lines or my opinions, this seems like a fight that is on the proverbial table given the skill level and intangibles at hand.

As we were recently reminded in the latest installment of Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno, we seldom see the same fight take place between two fighters – regardless of when they fought. This rematch will also be taking place during the pandemic era, which was not a challenge for either Adesanya or Whittaker when trying to prepare for their first encounter back in 2019.

Though we can argue who the latter affected more, I believe that Whittaker comes in with more potential adjustments at play, which also makes his chessboard a bit harder to predict.

Adesanya may be the more gifted player in multiple ways, but no one is beyond being bested by a good strategy. Because of that, Whittaker will need to continue his more recent trends of strategic discipline over hard-wired tactics.

Whittaker used to openly admit to using a “default-all” game plan of striking, as having those pre-loaded tactics and combinations are responsible for a large portion of his highlight reel. Although Whittaker’s recent fights have not been short of scary moments, he has been self-admittedly more disciplined about playing off of his jab on the outside (which should serve him well in this matchup).

Ultimately, I believe that the fighter who can make the other come forward will have an inherent advantage in exchanges.

Everyone keeps pointing to the late wrestling efforts of Blachowicz as the reason why he beat Adesanya, all while completely ignoring the countering aspect of that fight.

Blachowicz, akin to Adesanya and Whittaker, arguably does some of his best work off of the back foot. So, by making Adesanya come to him, Blachowicz was able to get the jump on the middleweight kingpin both in the form of counters and level-changing shots.

In fact, when you look at the history of each middleweight at hand, you will see that they had their toughest fights against fighters who made them come forward. For that reason, the man who controls those aspects of counters and distancing will probably end up with the belt around his waist by the end of the night.

It’s fair to accuse me of picking from the heart here, but I’m going with Whittaker to either grind out a hard-fought decision or to score a surprising knockout should he catch Adesanya off guard in a southpaw stance (via shifting hooks or his patent same-side head kick combo that both Gastelum and Filip Verlinden landed on Adesanya).

Again, Adesanya absolutely deserves distinction as the favorite and no one, including myself, should be surprised if the champion retains his title. Adesanya is a smart and talented fighter who is great for this sport, as I hate the few times I’ve dared to pick against him.

Be careful if you’re wagering on this volatile of an affair, as it could end at any moment. It’s not a confident pick, but if Whittaker is able to stay conscious and successfully get his sea legs under him within the first two rounds, then I trust his proven work rate and adjustments down the stretch.